Research

Published Articles

  1. “Labor Market Conditions and College Graduation: evidence from Brazil”, Economics of Education Review, 94C 102403 (2023). [Published Version] [Open Access Manuscript]
    (Abstract)

    College students graduating in a recession have been shown to face large and persistent negative effects on their earnings, health, and other outcomes. This paper investigates whether students delay graduation to avoid these effects. Using data on the universe of students in higher education in Brazil and leveraging variation in labor market conditions across time, space, and chosen majors, the paper finds that students in public institutions delay graduation to avoid entering depressed labor markets. A typical recession causes the on-time graduation rate to fall by 6.5% in public universities and there is no effect on private institutions. The induced delaying increases average graduation by 0.11 semesters, consistent with 1 out of 18 students delaying graduation by one year in public universities. The delaying effect is larger for students with higher scores, in higher-earnings majors, and from more advantaged backgrounds. This has important implications for the distributional impact of recessions.

  2. “Labor Market Trends and Unemployment Insurance Generosity During the Pandemic” (with Dana Scott), Economics Letters, 199C, 109722 (2021). [Published Version] [Open Access Manuscript]
    (Abstract)

    We test whether changes in unemployment insurance (UI) benefit generosity under the CARES Act in the US are associated with differential employment outcomes under the distinct conditions of the pandemic. While we observe a negative association between UI generosity and employment, we show that the relative employment gap arises before the Act was instituted, decreases in magnitude when the augmented benefits were in place, and does not change when the benefits expansion expires.

    Media coverage: CNBC, Time, Yahoo Canada, New Republic, and 4 others


Working Papers

  1. “Labor Market Informality, Risk, and Insurance”, August 2024. [Manuscript]
    (Abstract)

    In labor markets with substantial informality, distinct working arrangements offer different prospects for workers. Formal employment provides insurance programs requiring social security contributions and taxes. Informal and self-employment lack public insurance to mitigate risk but offer valuable routes out of unemployment. Workers face complex tradeoffs involving present and future risks, the ability to insure them, liquidity, and earnings. To investigate this question, I develop a life-cycle model of employment type and savings in a frictional search environment. I estimate the model using linked longitudinal survey and administrative Chilean data, exploiting policy reforms. The estimates suggest that formal sector insurance is valued; informal workers would be willing to forgo earnings to be formal employees. Informal opportunities also provide substantial insurance against unemployment risk. Exploring counterfactual policies, I show how the insurance values can be interpreted as summary measures of the attractiveness of these sectors given the policy and labor market environment.

  2. “Youth Subjective Life Expectancy and Early Labor Market Choices”, October 2024. [Manuscript]
    (Abstract)

    The literature has documented how subjective life expectancy (SLE) is strongly associated with savings and retirement outcomes for those nearing retirement. This paper assesses whether SLE matters when young individuals make consequential career decisions at the labor market entrance. Exploring survey and administrative data from Chile, I show how individuals aged 18–26 with one standard deviation higher SLE had 6.5%–12.3% higher pension wealth 15 years later. In a pension system based on individual capitalization accounts, contributions made early in the career compound for longer and are therefore valuable. I employ different empirical strategies, including exploiting cross-sectional variation in SLE, longitudinal individual fixed-effects approach, and instrumental variables, exploring health and death of family members. All yield similar results. In a simple theoretical framework, I show how ignoring heterogeneity in life expectancy leads to biased predictions and might induce suboptimal policies.

  3. “Are Public Schools in Developing Countries Ready to Integrate EdTech into Regular Instruction?” (with Bruno Ferman and Lycia Lima), March 2022. [Manuscript]
    (Abstract)

    We study the impacts of a program that introduced a computer-assisted learning platform into regular math classes using a randomized control trial in Brazilian primary public schools. Once a week, teachers would take their students to the school’s computer lab and teach using a dynamically adaptive platform, instead of their standard math classes. We find no average treatment effect on students’ math proficiency. However, we find positive effects of the program on measures of attitudes towards math. Moreover, we find suggestive evidence that the program may have positive effects on proficiency when infrastructure is better, so that it can be implemented using one computer per student. These results highlight the implementation challenges associated with education technology interventions in developing countries.

  4. “School closures and educational path: how the Covid-19 pandemic affected transitions to college” (with Fernanda Estevan), September 2022. [Manuscript]
    (Abstract)

    We investigate the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the transition between high school and college in Brazil. Using microdata from the universe of students that applied to a selective university, we document how the Covid-19 shock increased enrollment for students in the top 10% high-quality public and private high schools. This increase comes at the expense of graduates from relatively lower-quality schools. Furthermore, this effect is entirely driven by applicants who were at high school during the Covid pandemic. The effect is large and completely offsets the gains in student background diversity achieved by a bold quota policy implemented years before Covid. These results suggest that not only students from underprivileged backgrounds endured larger negative effects on learning during the pandemic, but they also experienced a stall in their educational paths.


Work in Progress

  1. “There must be an error here! Experimental evidence on coding errors’ biases” (with Bruno Ferman).
    (Abstract)

    Economics research relies heavily on computational activities. Nonetheless, coding errors are widely present, even in papers that have gone through peer review processes. In this paper, we investigate whether researchers have differential probabilities for debugging their codes, depending on the results they face. We test this hypothesis in a randomized experiment in which common coding errors would lead to either expected or unexpected results. If researchers are less likely to look for coding errors when encountering non-favorable results, this implies a bias in the scientific inquiry.

    The RCT is currently being implemented. The pre-analysis plan was uploaded to AEA-RCT-Registry 0008312.